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DTN Early Word Grains 07/19 06:03

DTN Early Word Grains         07/19 06:03
   Grains Higher, Trade Limps Off After Disappointing Week

   December corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel, November soybeans are up 3 1/4
cents, and September K.C. wheat is up 2 3/4 cents.

By Tregg Cronin
DTN Contributing Analyst

6:00 a.m. CME Globex:   December corn is up 1/2 cent per bushel, November
soybeans are up 3 1/4 cents, and September K.C. wheat is up 2 3/4 cents.

CME Globex Recap:   Global equity markets are higher as we close in on the July
Federal Reserve meeting on July 30-31 with expectations at 100% for a 25 basis
point (bp) cut in benchmark rates. In fact, expectations have risen as high as
58% for a 50 bp cut from just a 6% chance earlier this week. A 50 bp cut would
seem extreme considering employment figures remain strong, and despite the
trade tiff with China, the U.S. economy still appears strong. In grains, most
contracts are higher to close what has been a negative week of trade. After
opening strong on threatening maps Sunday, forecasts have improved and markets
have extracted premium. There is still a lot of grass between the ball and the
hole, but it would appear the current ranges in our space will hold until the
calendar flips to August or the next WASDE report dials in supply-side data.
The weaker trade Thursday felt like the first time bulls had actually
entertained the idea seasonal highs could be in, although a couple days of
strength likely keeps bulls fed.

OUTSIDE MARKETS:   Previous closes Thursday showed the Dow Jones Industrial
Average up 3.12 at 27,222.97 and the S&P 500 up 10.69 at 2,984.42 while the
10-Year Treasury yield ended at 2.038%. Early Friday, the September DJIA
futures are up 39 points. Asian markets are higher with Japan's Nikkei 225 up
420.75 (2%) and China's Shanghai Composite up 2302 points (0.79%). European
markets are higher with London's FTSE 100 up 3.82 points (0.05%), Germany's DAX
up 17.28 points (0.14%) and France's CAC 40 up 0.51 points (0.01%). The
September Euro is down 0.003 at 1.130 and the September U.S. dollar index is up
0.246 at 96.695. The September 30-Year T-Bond is down 3/32nds, while August
gold is up $10.90 at $1,439.00 and August crude oil is up $0.69 at $55.99.
Soybeans on China's Dalian Exchange were up 0.09% while soybean meal was -0.49%.